Elections in North East: Same story of political manipulations

The just concluded elections in the three states in northeast India confirm the apprehension that the story of democracy in India has hardly remained relishing. The BJP portrayed the outcome of the polls as its victory. The smokescreen created around the event barred us from knowing the nature of the manipulations the BJP leadership is doing in the region. This ought to make it clear that the BJP has not won all three states-Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland. The BJP has won only one state, and that is Tripura. It has been able to retain the state it captured in the 2018 assembly elections. In the other two states-Meghalaya and Nagaland - it is the junior partner in the government led by regional parties.

In Meghalaya, the party has joined the government led by its bitter rival. The way Prime Minister Narendra Modi celebrated the victory at the BJP headquarters in Delhi and attended the oath ceremonies in states makes it clear that he is using the occasion for the 2024 campaign. This is in line with the BJP’s strategy of turning every event into a propaganda event. The media remains a willing partner as usual.

Even the victory in Tripura is not as assured as it is being claimed. The vote share of the BJP has reduced by 4 per cent, and it has lost 3 seats. The party has won only a thin majority. It has 32 members in the 60-member state assembly. Its attempt to decimate Congress has also failed. The latter has secured 8.5 per cent of the vote and three seats. The party had failed to win any seats in the last elections and had secured less than 2 per cent of the vote. This time, the party was in alliance with the CPIM. The latter could win 11 seats with only 24.6 per cent of the vote. The vote share of Congress and CPIM only reveals that the CPIM could transfer its votes to Congress, but Congress failed to recover its lost ground. The CPIM secured 42 per cent of the vote in the 2018 elections.

The most worrying part of the Tripura elections is the emergence of a powerful regional party with name Tipra Motha Party. The party is demanding a separate homeland, the Greater Tipraland. The party led by the former ruler of Tripura has won 13 seats. Ironically, the BJP is negotiating with the party about becoming a partner in the government. The Left Front government in the state had been able to contain the wave of separatism through political actions. Now, this is being reversed.

This must be remembered: the BJP has no political base in Tripura, and whatever it possesses in the state is the ruins of Congress. Most of the leaders are former Congressmen. The present chief minister, Manik Saha, has also switched over to the BJP from the Congress.

The politics of the BJP in Meghalaya are also interesting. The party has joined the government of Konrad Sangma, whom it has been accusing of running one of the most corrupt governments in states. The BJP had helped him replace Mukul Sangma, the Congress chief minister of the state, in 2018. The Congress had emerged as the number one party in the last elections but failed to form the government. The BJP helped Konrad Sangma form the government despite his National People’s Party coming in second.

The interesting fact is that the attempt to decimate Congress in the hilly state failed after it won five seats in the 2023 elections. The party has secured 13 percent of the votes. Undoubtedly, the performance is impressive keeping in mind that the party was orphaned when Mukul Sangma switched over to Trinamool Congress with all his MLAs after the 2018 elections. The Trinamool Congress could win only five seats and 13 percent of the votes.

Results in Nagaland is somewhat better for the BJP, as its alliance with the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party has decisively defeated the opposition alliance of the Naga People’s Front and the Congress. However, here also is the story of snatching the political base the Congress has been possessing for several years now.

There are similar stories in other states in the northeast. Large-scale defections and mass inductions of former Congress workers form the main political action of the BJP.

Can it help resolve the problems the region has been facing? Will it help contain divisive forces? The answer is negative. If we closely look at the strategy of the BJP, it is clear that the party is relying on manipulations to gain political control over the region. It is using development funds to lure the local leadership. A part of the money spent on development projects goes to politicians, and a nexus is developing. Governments have allotted vast sums of money to develop infrastructure in this strategically important region. The party is destabilizing the hard-earned balance in the insurgency-prone regions. New equations have started to emerge in the region. The demand of Tiparaland is an example. If the Tipra Motha Party allies with the BJP, there should not be any doubt that the BJP’s move to counter the Left Front and the Congress is harmful to the national interest.

It is important that the BJP’s ideology is not consonant with the local aspirations. How can the BJP reconcile with demands for autonomy based on identity? The region has a significant population of Muslims and Christians. Can the RSS and its wings, including the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Bajrang Dal, accept minority rights? In the northeast, the organization has been making propaganda against churches. In Assam, Muslims have been their targets. The neutrality the BJP is currently displaying is at best a façade. During the elections, the party went to the extent of distancing itself from anti-cow-slaughter and anti-beef campaigns. How long can it play these tricks?

(The author is a senior journalist. He has experience of working with leading newspapers and electronic media including Deccan Herald, Sunday Guardian, Navbharat Times and Dainik Bhaskar. He writes on politics, society, environment and economy)